Wed 07/07/2021 - 06:44 EDT

UFC 264 Best Betting Picks: All in on Poirier Versus McGregor

UFC 264 Best Betting Picks: All in on Poirier Versus McGregor

With the exception of one fight on the main card, UFC 264 features tightly contested matchups. There is plenty of value on the favourites here and our UFC 264 best betting picks looks to cash in on these sharp lines. Check out the betting odds per the top online sportsbooks like Bet365:

Fighter #1 bet365 bet365 Fighter #2

Dustin Poirier

1.90 1.90 Conor McGregor

Gilbert Burns

2.10 1.72 Stephen Thompson

Tai Tuivasa 

1.72 2.10 Greg Hardy 

Irene Aldana

1.66  2.25 Yana Kunitskaya

Sean O'Malley

1.25  4.00 Louis Smolka

UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 Bouts*

  • Lightweight Main Event: Dustin Poirier (27-6-0 1NC) vs Conor McGregor (22-5-0)
  • Welterweight: Gilbert Burns (19-4-0) vs Stephen Thompson (16-4-1)
  • Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa (12-3-0) vs Greg Hardy (7-3-0 1NC)
  • Women's Bantamweight: Irene Aldana (12-6-0) vs Yana Kunitskaya (14-5-0 1NC)
  • Bantamweight: Sean O'Malley (13-1-0) vs Louis Smolka (17-7-0)
  • Welterweight: Carlos Condit (32-13-0) vs Max Griffin (17-8-0)
  • Welterweight: Niko Price (14-4-0 1NC) vs Michel Pereira (25-11-0 2NC)
  • Welterweight: Sean Brady (14-0-0) vs Kevin Lee (18-6-0)
  • Middleweight: Trevin Giles (14-2-0) vs Dricus Du Plessis (15-2-0)
  • Featherweight: Ryan Hall (8-1-0) vs Ilia Topuria (10-0-0)
  • Women's Flyweight: Jennifer Maia (18-6-1) vs Jessica Eye (15-9-0 1NC)
  • Middleweight: Omari Akhmedov (21-5-1) vs Brad Tavares (18-7-0)
  • Flyweight: Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-5-0) vs Jerome Rivera (10-5-0)
  • Middleweight: Hu Yaozhong (3-2-0) vs Alen Amedovski (8-2-0)

*Subject to change closer to the event

UFC 264 Picks & Predictions

Our UFC 263 picks didn't do so hot as we backed the wrong dog and went 1-2 for the night. UFC 264 doesn't feature too many interesting underdogs, but instead, we look at the three main fights all of which are pretty close on paper: 

Lightweight Main Event: Dustin Poirier (1.90) vs Conor McGregor (1.90)

This is not the same Conor McGregor anymore. It's as clear as daylight and had McGregor not have an army of diehards ready to break the bank on him, the oddsmakers would have set this line much lower for Poirier. The American knocked McGregor out in the previous fight. He may not do that this time, but he's still the more versatile fighter. 

Poirier has bested other heavy hitters and former champions over the course of grueling wars. He's evolved his game with each fight while McGregor has still been stuck with the same mindset. The sport has grown and he hasn't adjusted well enough. 

Still, McGregor has the power edge here. His best chance is to catch Poirier early and put him away. But outside of that, Poirier will rally and put him away to end this rivalry for good. 

SBR’s pick — Poirier (1.90). As the better-rounded fighter, Poirier has more means to win this fight. He's also tasted McGregor's power and survived through it. Utilizing his more varied skill set, he'll outwork and best McGregor a late finish or a decision win.

Tip: Other top sportsbooks like BetOnline and SportsBetting offer promos on the best UFC fights like this. Check them out.

Welterweight: Gilbert Burns (2.10) vs Stephen Thompson (1.72)

While Gilbert Burns has evolved to become more than just being a grappler, this is still a "grappler versus striker" contest at its best. Burns will have difficulty taking Stephen Thompson down or outstriking him. Thompson has a 78% takedown defense and 58% striking defense. 

He's only surrendered two takedowns (one for each fight against Tyron Woodley) in 14 bouts since losing to Matt Brown way back in 2012. Burns has improved his striking but the likes of Jorge Masvidal and Geoff Neal couldn't find a bead on Thompson and neither will he.

SBR’s pick — Thompson (1.72). The karate master should be able to utilize his tried-and-true gameplan against Burns: keep him from a distance and outstrike him for a decisive victory. Find a prop on Thompson to win on points for added value on your bets.

Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa (1.72) vs Greg Hardy (2.10)

Big boys collied as Tuivasa and Hardy clash. Both men have a knockout rate of over 85% with all but one of their victories coming via strikes. But as far as the timeline of their careers, Tuivasa is ahead of Hardy. The Kiwi has been inconsistent and was even in a three-fight losing skid. But that's come against higher-level fighters. 

Hardy has bested mostly non-UFC caliber fighters and even got finished by Marcin Tybura, who was notorious for being a point fighter. He's a slight underdog here since he's got a size and reach advantage. He could catch Tuivasa and knock him out. But the experience and skills disparity here could be too big to overcome.

SBR’s pick — Tuivasa (1.72). He got caught and finished by an aging Junior Dos Santos, but Tuivasa is still the better striker here. He's also durable and should have a slight speed advantage. Still, he can be a flake so it might be better to lay the chalk that this fight does not go to a decision as a prop bet. 

To get more bang for your back, try parlaying Poirier and Thompson at 3.27. Find more valuable bets with the best online sportsbooks available for Canadians. You can use the prop bets for either fighter or find more bets throughout the card or other MMA events. Sign up for several books to get a deposit bonus of bet credits.

Category : Sports News

Tag : UFC 264 picks

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