Improbable Unstoppable At The 2019 Preakness Stakes?
The three favourites to win the Preakness 2019 according to the main racebooks are:
- Improbable +175
- War of Will +275
- Alwaysmining +650
2019 Preakness Stakes Odds
There will be no Triple Crown winner in 2019. Country House hasn’t been 100% after his incredible victory, much to the disappointment of online betting sites. Maximum Security also won’t be making the trip to Pimlico Race Course, where the second jewel of the triple crown will be determined.
Legendary trainer Bob Baffert will bring only a single horse to the Preakness, attempting to bounce back from a fourth-place finish – fifth if you don’t count the DQ. Improbable’s the favorite, but other thoroughbreds appear ready to break through.
Similar to many outstanding thoroughbred racers, Improbable tends to be dominant when conditions are favorable for a fast track. One of the factors which resulted in the fourth place finish at the Kentucky Derby were the sloppy conditions at Churchill Down. On a dry, fast track, the entire controversy likely doesn’t happen.
However, a quick look at Improbable’s record reveals an inability to win big races, despite his Preakness odds. The horse finished second at the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel Division 1. His only win during the Road to the Kentucky Derby was the Los Alamitos Futurity, a secondary event. This will be the best chance for Improbable to live up to the Baffert pedigree, although another upset seems more likely than not.
War Of Will +275
A muddy, crazy Kentucky Derby also claimed War Of Will, who outperformed Improbable and Country House during the run-up to the first triple crown event. War of Will won the Risen Star Stakes and the LeComte Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course, dominating the scene in New Orleans.
Interestingly, lawyers have been blaming War Of Will for Maximum Security’s disqualification, while others believe War Of Will would have won if not for the controversy. Either way, War Of Will is one of the fastest three-year-old thoroughbreds on the scene, fully capable of taking the remaining triple crown races. He’ll serve as Improbable’s main rival, but Baffert’s entry looks a bit overrated. As such, War Of Will provides the best value for 2019 Preakness odds.
On a six-race winning streak, Alwaysmining has been tearing up the competition since October 2018. Despite not competing in the Kentucky Derby, many consider this horse a top competitor at Pimlico. Vegas odds Preakness list Alwaysmining as the third most likely to take the second jewel of the triple crown.
Fatigue is a big issue for thoroughbreds, who expend an intense amount of energy each time they compete. A busy triple crown season drains these beasts, preventing top performance for horses who enter too many races. Alwaysmining is in an excellent position during the run up to the Preakness, peaking at the best time without spending energy on the Kentucky Derby. Consider this gelding a top dark horse candidate.
Bourbon War +700
Perhaps the best named horse at the Preakness, Bourbon War didn’t race at the Kentucky Derby. Similar to Alwaysmining, a less busy schedule may give Bourbon a bit of an extra energy kick during the stretch run. Bourbon was a handful of points below the cutoff point for Churchill Downs, which may prove beneficial at Pimlico.
Unfortunately, this horse hasn’t performed well at graded stakes, losing to Maximum Security, Bodexpress and Code of Honor. Sure, Bourbon won Maiden Special Weight and Allowance Optional Claiming events at Aqueduct and Gulfstream, but graded stakes tend to predict future performance with greater accuracy. Consider caution before investing in this horse.
One of the more intriguing racers at the Preakness will be Owendale, another outstanding thoroughbred which didn’t compete at the Kentucky Derby. Instead, this beast won the Gr. 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes with an outstanding Equibase speed rating of 106. This April victory bodes well for success in May.
After winning two of three starts in 2019, Owendale seems to be peaking at an excellent time to compete well at Pimlico. This speedster doesn’t have the pedigree or hall-of-fame trainers like Improbable or War Of Will, but Owendale’s top E-Speed ratings is a couple of points below the two favorites. Alwaysmining and Owendale could make an excellent one-two punch for box bets.
Preakness Stakes Longshots
One of the top five Preakness horses in terms of odds are likely to win this event, but the Kentucky Derby showed that longshots still have their place in the Triple Crown – even if they win because of controversy.
The best longshot to consider for the Preakness Stakes would be Bodexpress, who made the Kentucky Derby with a string of second-place finishes. This horse barely qualified by finishing second to Maximum Security at the Florida Derby, the now-disqualified winner of the Kentucky Derby.
Bodexpress achieved a solid top E Speed rating of 103 at Gulfstream Park, showing the speed and power needed to compete at the top level of the sport. A 13th-place finish at the Kentucky Derby was disappointing for Bodexpress, plunging his odds all the way down to +1600. Alwaysmining and Owendale are great dark horses, but a payout of +1600 for Bodexpress undersells the capacity of this thoroughbred.
- Anothertwistafate +1000
- Win Win Win +1000
- Signalman +1200
- Bodexpress +1600
- Warriors Charge +1600
- Laughing Fox +2000
- Market King +2000
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