NFL Week 8 Predictions
NFL Games Week 8
Last week was the first ugly one of the 2017 NFL season with my NFL betting picks as neither of the plays came close to cashing. Seattle and the Giants never threatened their total, while the Bengals went into a shell in the 2nd half vs Pittsburgh and lost yet another game to the Steelers.
NFL Picks Week 8
Hopefully the last few days without football action helped clear my head and prepare for this week as there are some intriguing games on the board. I wasn’t alone in having a rough Week 7 as the 11 most popular plays in the popular Las Vegas Super Contest went 0-for-11 as the sportsbooks had one of their better weeks of the season. Going against the grain has proved to be a profitable strategy so far in the NFL for 2017, and chances are it will remain that way for the rest of the year. There is so much parity throughout the league that the 2017 NFL season has come to embody the phrase “Any Given Sunday.”
Every single team has more then one flaw and handicapping and projecting just how badly those will affect a given team is tough. We’ve seen horrible defenses like New England step up on SNF last week and completely own a high-powered Falcons attack, and a team like the Chicago Bears beat a solid Carolina team with a rookie QB only throwing the ball seven times.
However, with that being said there are two contests that really stand out to me in Week 8 as these numbers just don’t quite equate to how teams have played and either blatently ignore or weigh preseason projections too heavily based on what we’ve already seen. So let’s get right to the plays:
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals *Indianapolis +11 (-110) at Sports Interaction
Now, I know that you may be thinking this play has a bit of spite mixed in after the Bengals let me down a week ago, but I can assure you that’s not the case. The Bengals are a team – that many who projected them to be a legitimate contender during the summer – that gets way too much credit, as people are still hesitant to get off those lofty preseason expectations.
Cincinnati has yet to really show they’ve got any sort of playoff-type talent this year as QB Andy Dalton continues to make poor decisions, and the play-calling by Marvin Lewis and his coaching staff is tenative to the point where you wonder if they actually want to go backwards with the ball. Even with the Colts looking as bad as they did a week ago in a 27-0 home loss, there is no way the Bengals deserve to be laying double-digits against anyone in the NFL right now.
Indy QB Jacoby Brissett was sacked 10 times in that loss to the Jags, but don’t expect that to happen again this week. The Colts are 4-1 ATS the last five times they are coming off a 10+ point home loss, and a 10-2 ATS mark on the road against teams with a losing record at home bodes well for them here. I don’t expect the Colts to win outright – although it wouldn’t surprise me – but this spread is just way too many points for this Bengals team to cover; especially after a tough, physical game against the hated Pittsburgh Steelers.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets *Atlanta -4.5 (-115) at Sports Interaction
If bettors have not been quick to let go of their preseason expectations on the Bengals, the exact opposite is true for both Atlanta and New York. Atlanta made it to the Super Bowl last year and after a few bad weeks – capped off by a horrible performance in their Super Bowl rematch with New England last week – and everyone’s already writing them off as a flash in the pan. At the same time, the Jets were expected to be lucky to win a game this season and they’ve already reeled off a three-game winning streak and seem to play everyone tough.
Yet, I wouldn’t be so quick to weigh this year’s results so heavily yet, as I’m sure if I were to ask you before the year what this line would be, most would have said at least -7. Heck, even with the performances of both teams through eight weeks, this spread of -4.5 is still too short as the Falcons are in no mood to screw around anymore. Last week’s loss to New England was so embarrasing that the Falcons offense that carried them to the Super Bowl last year could very well put an epic beatdown on this overmatched Jets squad.
Atlanta has lost three in a row overall, but they are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on the road, and have a 5-1 ATS run going against losing teams. On paper, the Falcons should win this game by double digits rather easily, and if they had beaten New England last week, or even played them tough, this would be a prime letdown spot for the Falcons. But the blowout nature in which they lost negates any of those concerns as I’ve got no problem laying the chalk with an Atlanta team that gets back on track this week.
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