ATSSkinner |  Fri 20/10/2017 - 06:48 EDT

NFL Week 7 Predictions

NFL Week 7 Predictions
Week 7 of the 2017 NFL campaign has arrived and just like Week 5, we've got an entire board of NFL games with very tight spreads. No team is favored by more than 6 points this week, so expect the season of parity in the NFL to continue. The action on Sunday gets going at 1:00 pm EST on October 22, 2017.

NFL Games Week 7

After three consecutive weeks of sweeping the board with my free NFL betting picks, that streak came to an end in Week 6 with a 1-1 ATS day. Both selections were on the same game – Chicago vs Baltimore – and thanks to a late comeback to tie by the Baltimore Ravens we were able to cash the ‘over’ selection, but never really had a chance with the Ravens covering the spread. That’s still a 7-1 ATS mark over the past four weeks and that’s always a good thing, especially when you are trying to build your bankroll in the early stages of a season.

NFL
NFL
playoff - Matchday 2
Match day
  • 1
  • 2
Away Score Home Money Line
Saturday 13 January
FT Atlanta Falcons 10 - 15 Philadelphia Eagles -141 +120 Odds
FT Tennessee Titans 14 - 35 Patriots +600 -909 Odds
Sunday 14 January
Jaguars 13:05 Pittsburgh Steelers +270 -294 Odds
New Orleans Saints 16:40 Minnesota Vikings +210 -208 Odds

NFL Picks Week 7

It’s on to Week 7 though and like I said in the opening, this is another one of those tough weeks in terms of the point spread. This NFL season has already been filled with upsets and shocking results, and given that all 32 teams now have at least one SU loss and so many teams bunched together in the standings, chances are we see plenty of weeks ahead where the point spreads are lower and tight like they are in Week 7.

However, these middle weeks of the year add another dynamic to handicapping NFL games: Bye weeks. Numerous teams over the next month or so will be either coming off or going on their week of rest and that scheduling dynamic adds another element to these point spreads. How you apply that knowledge is up to you, but typically if a team was on a roll or playing some great football heading into the bye, that’s usually a bad omen. The week off breaks up the great momentum they had and it can take a week or two to get rolling again.

Conversely, getting that week off after a poor week or bad stretch of games is a great way for NFL teams to regroup and recharge as they prepare for what’s left of their campaign. Guys who’ve been underperforming or are a little banged up get a chance to get healthy and it’s these teams you may want to play on this week and looking forward. 

At first look you see this game and want to lean towards the ‘under’ as the Seattle defense is known to be one of the better ones in the league for the past half-decade and everyone saw the great performance by the Giants defense in their shocking upset over Denver last week. New York’s depleted offense thanks to numerous injuries is also a big factor in that line of thought, and oddsmakers did open up with a number of 38.5 for this total.

However, throughout the week it’s been big bets by some who have pushed this total up to 40, even in the face of the majority of bets going the other way on the ‘under.’ That reverse line movement is something I look to zero in on every week and I agree with the move 100%. 

For one, the Giants are back at home this week and as home underdogs will be willing to take more shots down the field in hopes of pulling off the upset. QB Eli Manning has now had two full weeks of practice with his new receiving core thanks to all the injuries, and developing a repore with new guys always takes time. We should see a more explosive passing attack from the Giants compared to last week vs Denver, and the fact that New York actually showed they are willing, and can have success running the ball last week against Denver’s top ranked rush defense gives the Seahawks another element in deciding how to best defend New York. A balanced attack is always the toughest for opposing defenses to stop in this league.

Finally, we’ve got a situation where Seattle is coming off their week of rest – the Giants also have their bye in Week 8 – and the time off gave Seattle time to self-scout their offense which hasn’t really been that productive on the whole this year. Pete Carroll’s squads typically use that time off wisely on offense as Seattle is 12-3 O/U off their bye the past decade-plus, and it’s not like we even need a high-scoring game to surpass this still too low number of 40.

  • Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers *Cincinnati +5.5 (-110) at Sports Interaction

Cincinnati is coming off their week of rest too and they head out on the road for a must-win divisional game against the hated Steelers. Cincinnati/Pittsburgh games tend to be the most physical games NFL fans see all year, and this week should be no different. If that’s the case, how can you not give the edge to the more rested team?

Granted, Cincinnati probably wasn’t thrilled with having their bye week when they did as they have won two in a row outright and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They’ve really been playing much better football overall since they made the decision to change offensive coordinators and they did have some guys nursing minor injuries that welcomed the week off. Cincinnati is also 8-0 ATS when off their bye week and facing a division rival who’s got a winning record like Pittsburgh.

But this bet is also about fading a Steelers team who is coming off a big upset win themselves over KC last week and is in a prime letdown spot here. It’s tough to give the “letdown” spot your full support given it is a huge rivalry game, but this number is too much for the Steelers to lay in a game that will likely be decided by a FG.

Category : Sports News

Tag : cincinnati bengals , Football , football betting , new york giants , nfl , nfl betting , nfl odds , pittsburgh steelers , seattle seahawks

Join The Conversation
More articles...
Sports News - 18/12/18
NBA Championship Futures Odds 2019 
The Toronto Raptors have emerged as the main contenders against the reign of the Golden State Warriors in 2019. NBA futures betting show Golden State as overpowering favorites to win another championship, especially in a weakened western conference. However, the rise of the eastern conference this season will produce a strong challenge from Toronto, the Boston Celtics or the Philadelphia 76ers, all of whom feature the personnel needed to upset the champs.
Read this article 
Sports News - 06/12/18
2019 Super Bowl Odds 
Super Bowl LIII takes place on February 3rd at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. An unprecedented offensive outburst from the league this season promises a high-scoring championship game. NFL Super Bowl futures over the stretch run features the Rams, Saints, Chiefs and Patriots as popular favorites. Clubs like the Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers offer superb value as potential contenders.
Read this article 
Sports News - 05/12/18
2019 NBA Finals Outrights – Futures Prediction And Odds 
There’s no precedent to the Golden State Warriors, who will be overwhelming NBA futures betting favorites to win their third consecutive championship. No team in history has ever fielded a starting lineup consisting of all-stars like the Warriors, a situation most teams can't compete against. Even great contenders like the Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers will be longshots to win the 2019 NBA Finals.
Read this article 
Sports News - 04/12/18
NFL Week 14 – Best ATS Picks 
Week 14 in the NFL begins a last ditch effort for franchises who still have a shot at making the post season. Clubs like the Panthers and Vikings need victories to avoid another disappointing season. Carolina's a solid bet to beat the Browns, but Minnesota's far from a lock against Seattle. The best NFL spread picks this week also include the Patriots, Rams and Packers.
Read this article