NFL Week 7 Predictions
NFL Games Week 7
After three consecutive weeks of sweeping the board with my free NFL betting picks, that streak came to an end in Week 6 with a 1-1 ATS day. Both selections were on the same game – Chicago vs Baltimore – and thanks to a late comeback to tie by the Baltimore Ravens we were able to cash the ‘over’ selection, but never really had a chance with the Ravens covering the spread. That’s still a 7-1 ATS mark over the past four weeks and that’s always a good thing, especially when you are trying to build your bankroll in the early stages of a season.
NFL Picks Week 7
It’s on to Week 7 though and like I said in the opening, this is another one of those tough weeks in terms of the point spread. This NFL season has already been filled with upsets and shocking results, and given that all 32 teams now have at least one SU loss and so many teams bunched together in the standings, chances are we see plenty of weeks ahead where the point spreads are lower and tight like they are in Week 7.
However, these middle weeks of the year add another dynamic to handicapping NFL games: Bye weeks. Numerous teams over the next month or so will be either coming off or going on their week of rest and that scheduling dynamic adds another element to these point spreads. How you apply that knowledge is up to you, but typically if a team was on a roll or playing some great football heading into the bye, that’s usually a bad omen. The week off breaks up the great momentum they had and it can take a week or two to get rolling again.
Conversely, getting that week off after a poor week or bad stretch of games is a great way for NFL teams to regroup and recharge as they prepare for what’s left of their campaign. Guys who’ve been underperforming or are a little banged up get a chance to get healthy and it’s these teams you may want to play on this week and looking forward.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants *Over 40 points (-110) at Sports Interaction
At first look you see this game and want to lean towards the ‘under’ as the Seattle defense is known to be one of the better ones in the league for the past half-decade and everyone saw the great performance by the Giants defense in their shocking upset over Denver last week. New York’s depleted offense thanks to numerous injuries is also a big factor in that line of thought, and oddsmakers did open up with a number of 38.5 for this total.
However, throughout the week it’s been big bets by some who have pushed this total up to 40, even in the face of the majority of bets going the other way on the ‘under.’ That reverse line movement is something I look to zero in on every week and I agree with the move 100%.
For one, the Giants are back at home this week and as home underdogs will be willing to take more shots down the field in hopes of pulling off the upset. QB Eli Manning has now had two full weeks of practice with his new receiving core thanks to all the injuries, and developing a repore with new guys always takes time. We should see a more explosive passing attack from the Giants compared to last week vs Denver, and the fact that New York actually showed they are willing, and can have success running the ball last week against Denver’s top ranked rush defense gives the Seahawks another element in deciding how to best defend New York. A balanced attack is always the toughest for opposing defenses to stop in this league.
Finally, we’ve got a situation where Seattle is coming off their week of rest – the Giants also have their bye in Week 8 – and the time off gave Seattle time to self-scout their offense which hasn’t really been that productive on the whole this year. Pete Carroll’s squads typically use that time off wisely on offense as Seattle is 12-3 O/U off their bye the past decade-plus, and it’s not like we even need a high-scoring game to surpass this still too low number of 40.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers *Cincinnati +5.5 (-110) at Sports Interaction
Cincinnati is coming off their week of rest too and they head out on the road for a must-win divisional game against the hated Steelers. Cincinnati/Pittsburgh games tend to be the most physical games NFL fans see all year, and this week should be no different. If that’s the case, how can you not give the edge to the more rested team?
Granted, Cincinnati probably wasn’t thrilled with having their bye week when they did as they have won two in a row outright and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They’ve really been playing much better football overall since they made the decision to change offensive coordinators and they did have some guys nursing minor injuries that welcomed the week off. Cincinnati is also 8-0 ATS when off their bye week and facing a division rival who’s got a winning record like Pittsburgh.
But this bet is also about fading a Steelers team who is coming off a big upset win themselves over KC last week and is in a prime letdown spot here. It’s tough to give the “letdown” spot your full support given it is a huge rivalry game, but this number is too much for the Steelers to lay in a game that will likely be decided by a FG.
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