NFL Week 6 Predictions
NFL Games Week 6
After the Cincinnati Bengals were able to cover their point spread late last week, and the Chargers and Giants did indeed bring their offenses to the table, my Week 5 NFL free betting picks swept the board (2-0 ATS) for the third consecutive week. Beating the NFL on the line is arguably the toughest sport to have success at because the lines put out by oddsmakers are the sharpest of sharp, so a run like this definitely feels good for the bankroll and the handicapping process and I look to keep it going in Week 6.
NFL Picks Week 6
After the majority of the Week 5 NFL games all had short spreads in the +/- 3 range, Week 6 is virtually the opposite with a handful of double digit favorites on the board, and many other laying between 4 and 10 points. A week like this makes for a drastic turnaround in terms of the handicapping process as you’ve got to get out of the mentality that there is expected to be a lot of close games like last week, and into the thought process of many potential blowouts this week.
The point spread is the great equalizer though and with big numbers like there are, you will see teams lose SU but cover the spread with all the points they’re getting.
Week 6 is also the first time this season that we’ve got situations pop up with NFL teams coming off their bye week. It’s tough to understate just how important a week off is to these players both physically and mentally during the year, and typically it’s a better idea to lean towards playing ON teams coming off their bye week because of that extended rest.
That might not hold true this week as three of the four teams in that spot are laying double digits, but going forward, it’s definitely something to keep in mind for the upcoming weeks.
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens *Over 40 points (-110) at Sports Interaction
This game features two teams that have had much maligned offensive production in 2017 so far, as the Bears recently made the switch to their rookie QB in an attempt to spark the offense, and Baltimore has looked downright awful offensively aside from last week.
But the fact that the Ravens defense got things going in Oakland a week ago, and Chicago did look better with Mitchell Trubisky under center and trying to create big plays, this game has the potential to be one of those that easily surpasses a low number like this when many aren’t expecting it.
Chicago is just 1-4 O/U on the year which may have some fearful of backing this ‘over,’ but that lone ‘over’ came the last time they were out on the road. As you can guess, most of the scoring was done by the Bears opponent that day (Green Bay), and it was the game that prompted HC John Fox to make the QB switch to see what they’ve got in Trubisky.
Yet, this is still a team that gives up way more points on the road then they do at home, as the two games the Bears have played as visitores this year have seen their opponents put up 29 and 35 points against them. Given that Baltimore’s offense got going with a 30-point effort themselves last week, getting 28+ from the Ravens this week is not out of the norm for Chicago road games. Chicago is also 4-1 O/U after playing a home game against a division rival, and 17-5 O/U when playing on the Sunday after making a MNF appearance.
Finally, Baltimore’s offense has to be feeling confident after the blistering start they got off to against the Raiders last week, and if they want to seriously compete for the AFC North crown, they’ll need to continue to make strides on that side of the ball. Facing a Bears defense that’s been downright awful away from home this year is just the situation where Baltimore could keep it going, and with a 4-1 O/U run in Week 6 the past few years, this non-conference game should easily see 45+ points scored by the end of it.
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens *Baltimore -6.5 (-110) at Sports Interaction
Im staying with the same game for the second selection this week as not only do I see plenty of points scored here, I see the bulk of them coming from Baltimore.
I’ve already touched on just how bad this Bears defense has played away from home this year, but their average margin of defeat in those two games is 21.5 points. Those aren’t the kind of results you want to have if you want to be considered a threat to home teams when you visit.
Furthermore, this will be Trubisky’s first NFL start on the road and that’s always a spot that I love to fade QB’s and their respective teams. Rookie QB’s never truly know what it’s like to play in a hostile NFL environment until they are actually out there, and this will be a big day of learning for Trubisky. Thrown in a Ravens defense that’s among the better ones in the league this year, and Baltimore’s 5-2 ATS run at home, and this should be a 10+ point win for the Ravens.
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