NFL Week 5 Predictions
NFL Games Week 5
The NFL has treated me rather well the past two weeks as it was a clean sweep again last week with my two betting picks. Just like Week 3′s selections, the plays on Carolina +9 and Pittsburgh -3 were never really in doubt, and the Panthers even shocked many when they won outright in New England. Runs like this don’t last forever, so it’s important to enjoy them while they last and manage your bankroll properly going foward because it’s not always going to be this good.
Week 5 has plenty of intriguing games as the bulk of the games on the betting board all have tight spreads of 3 points or less. 11 of the 13 games on Sunday have point spreads of 3 points or less, meaning this is a great week for ML bettors to venture out to a few spreads. Traditionally, in about 80% of NFL games the point spread doesn’t matter if you’ve picked the outright winner, and with this week’s spreads being so close to that pick’em range, we should see that hold true in Week 5.
NFL Picks Week 5
Admittedly, having this many games at +/- 3 on the spread makes it a little tougher to get a handle on just what will happen this week. We’ve already seen plenty of surprising results in 2017, and while the surprises might be lessened because it’s hard to argue a 3-point underdog winning outright is much of a surprise, there will be some results that many are counting on. Where those will end up being we will have to wait and see, but it also means that looking at a few more totals plays this week could be the better strategy. With that in mind, let’s get right to this week’s plays:
L.A Chargers at New York Giants *Over 45 points (-110) at Sports Interaction
There aren’t many out there that would have figured this Week 5 game would pit two winless teams against one another, but that’s exactly what we’ve got. The Giants and the Chargers have shot themselves in the foot multiple times this year to cost them games, and at 0-4 SU you’ve got to start to question where the motivation will be going forward for both teams as they know making the playoffs is the longest of longshots at 0-4 SU. But with little left to lose and the notion of keeping up that “hope” for one more week, I believe we see both teams let it all hang out in this game and rack up plenty of points.
Situationally this ‘over’ play also lines up well too as the Chargers are 3-1 O/U after playing three straight games at home, and the Giants have a 4-1 O/U run going when listed as home favorites against AFC opponents. Both teams also got some rhythm going offensively a week ago in putting up 23+ points each, and the Chargers 13-6-1 O/U run on the road against an opponent with a losing record at home suggests both sides should reach that mark again in Week 5.
While there might be some skepticism about expecting two winless teams to produce offensively, this number of 45 is probably about a FG too low, and I’m looking to take full advantage. Both teams are built to win with their offensive playmakers, and guys like WR Odell Beckham and WR Keenan Allen should have big statistical days en route to this game seeing 50+ points scored.
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals *Cincinnati -3 (-105) at Sports Interaction
The Buffalo Bills are riding high these days as they sit atop the AFC East Division with a 3-1 SU record entering Week 5, and have yet to allow more than 17 points against in any one game. Their defense is for real as they’ve shut down the likes of Atlanta and Denver so far, but the think you’ve got to remember about the NFL on a week-to-week basis is that no team is ever as good as they look one at their best, and never as bad as they look at their worst. Buffalo is getting nearly 70% of the support right now after upsetting Atlanta a week ago, and everyone still distinctly remembers all of the Bengals problems they had early on this year.
Yet, since Cincinnati made the change at offensive co-ordinator, their offense has really started to click. It’s been back-to-back weeks of 24+ points by the Bengals and being at home for the first time with this new-look offense, Cincinnati will definitely want to show it off. Bursting the Bills bubble as this all-time great defense they’ve got going right now would be a welcomed byproduct of a victory this week, as the Bills are classified as a public underdog in Week 5 that I definitely have no problem betting against.
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