NFL Week 3 Predictions
NFL Games Week 3
Week 2 was a successful one for my free NFL picks as they went 2-1 ATS and the one loss was because we got blindsided by Minnesota’s QB Sam Bradford not suiting up. But Baltimore and Atlanta easily covered their respective point spreads at home, and both are out on the road this week with the Ravens taking part in that early AM kickoff over in London, England.
Yet, it’s not that game across the pond that has grabbed my eye this week as I believe there are much better plays across the betting board in the normal home vs away contests in the US. With a handful of teams either 2-0 SU or 0-2 SU, Week 3 is often an important one for the direction an organization’s season can take. Lose your 3rd straight game out of the gate and it’s almost time to pack up shop and begin to build for next year, while win your 3rd straight and you’ve got your sights firmly set on a division title, or even bigger things.
WIth that as a backdrop to some motivational angles some teams are dealing with in Week 3, let’s get right down to breaking down this week’s card. By isolating two of the best bets out there – the ones with the most value – there is no fear of over-exposure in terms of your bankroll, and hopefully we can turn a profit like we did in Week 2.
NFL Picks Week 3
- Denver at Buffalo: *Buffalo +3.5 (-110) at Sports Interaction
The Denver Broncos are one of those 2-0 SU teams entering the week and have looked quite impressive in both victories. Everyone knew Denver’s defense would be above average in 2017, but it’s actually been the offense that’s looked even better. QB Trevor Siemian has really come into his own throwing the ball downfield and making quick and correct decisions for Denver.
However, both of those wins came at home and the first road game of the year always brings it’s own unique challenges. I don’t expect Siemian to be nearly as good as he has been through two weeks so far, and as an organization, Denver is 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Buffalo. The Bills are known for being a sneaky-good team at home that can upset anyone, and they could use a dominant performance right now.
Buffalo hasn’t looked good in scraping by the lowly Jets in Week 1 and struggling to move the ball in a 9-3 loss to Carolina a week ago. Not one Bills play went for more than 15 yards in that Carolina game and that’s got to change. Being at home will help that, but the fact that Buffalo is 8-2 ATS after gaining fewer than 250 yards, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four times these two have met, grabbing that extra ‘hook’ at +3.5 could end up being the difference ATS this week.
- Houston at New England: *Over 44 points (-110) at Sports Interaction
Both of these teams enter Week 3 with 1-1 SU records, but they’ve each gotten there in different ways. Both were blown out at home in Week 1, but Houston used a stout defensive performance on the road to beat Cincinnati in Week 2, while New England used their powerhouse offense to beat the Saints. With the Patriots being back at home where they typically light up the scoreboard, and Houston having a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday last week, expect this total of 44 to be surpassed.
Everyone knows about how explosive the Patriots offense can be, and even against a stout Texans defense, Tom Brady and company should have little trouble. The Pats are on a 6-0 O/U run dating back to Week 17 of last year, are 6-0 O/U when coming off a win of 14+ points, and have gone 12-3 O/U the last 15 times Tom Brady is coming off a game of 3+ TD passes and zero INT’s.
Yet, what makes this play even more attractive is the fact that Houston is sending out rookie QB Deshaun Watson out there and rookie QB’s have been known to have multiple turnovers in their maiden trips to Foxborough. That’s likely to be the case again here and giving New England a short field leads to quick points and forces Houston to be even more aggressive the next time they’ve got the ball. Houston is 5-0 O/U after covering a point spread the week before, and with seven of their last nine games against New England cashing ‘over’ tickets, this game should be no different.
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