Fri 11/02/2022 - 04:05 EST

    NFL Super Bowl LVI Pick: Can Bengals Complete The Fairy Tale?

    NFL Super Bowl LVI Pick: Can Bengals Complete The Fairy Tale?

    Did you know that word "underdog" came from dogfighting in the late 1800s to refer to the opposite of the "top dog" or the dog favoured to win? The underdog then refers to the competitor that is supposed to lose. In the Cincinnati Bengals' case, they have proven their football betting odds wrong consistently as they are now just one win away from becoming the ultimate underdog champion of Super Bowl LVI.

    The Bengals have beaten the top-seeded Titans and Super Bowl-favourite Chiefs as an underdog. Facing the NFC Champions, the Los Angeles Rams, they might just meet their toughest test. The home team has the advantage on offence, defence, and coaching on paper. But a quick look through the previous Super Bowl odds shows that the actual results more than likely, sides with the underdogs.

    Super Bowl LVI Odds sports-interaction bodog betonline

    Los Angeles Rams

    1.57 1.51 1.51

    Cincinnati Bengals

    2.50 2.65 2.68
    • Date/Time: February 13, 2022, 6:00 PM ET
    • Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA, USA
    • Broadcast: CTV, NBC

    Super Bowl Upsets: Can Bengals Be Latest 'Dog' To Win? 

    The Super Bowl has consistently featured upsets: 19 of the 55 events have seen the likely loser turn the tables and win. However, underdogs have won eight of the last 18 Super Bowls and bettors would be up over five units if they wagered on each of these underdogs.

    This years' playoffs have actually featured a plethora of upsets. We even correctly picked two of the three underdogs to win with our NFL 2022 Divisional Round Picks, two of who are playing in the Super Bowl right now. Since this round, underdogs have gone 4-2 on the NFL betting lines, straight-up.

    If we go by the spread, underdogs have gone 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in the last ten Super Bowls and 14-5 ATS in the last 19 games. The Bengals have already proven time that they are "forrreal" and have a solid chance to become the 20th underdog to win.

    The Biggest Super Bowl Upsets By Betting Odds

    If the Bengals do pull this off, it would be a monumental achievement for the franchise but it would fall short of being one of the biggest Super Bowl upsets. We dig through the history of Super Bowl betting odds to find the biggest betting upsets to date...

    New York Jets Over Baltimore Colts (SB III): To this day, this stands as the biggest Super Bowl upset. Joe Namath is still living off the clout he got for boldly calling, and leading his 18-point underdog Jets to an upset win over the powerhouse Colts. 

    New England Patriots Over St. Louis Rams (SB XXXVI): The St. Louis Rams had already won a Super Bowl and featured a lineup with a handful of Hall of Famers. So when the fledgling New England Patriots edged them as 14-point underdogs, the legends of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were born...

    New York Giants Over New England Patriots (XLII): The Patriots are one of a few franchises to be on both ends of humongous Super Bowl upsets. Brady and Belichick's Patriots were just a Super Bowl win away from what would have been the greatest season by an NFL team. Instead, that darned Eli Manning and his New York Giants somehow beat them as 12.5-point underdogs.

    Super Bowl LVI Betting Pick - Bengals vs Rams

    It will be Joe Burrow, the quarterback messiah for the Bengals against the Los Angeles Rams' menacing defensive line. This line features the likes of Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd and has allowed the second-lowest touchdown percentage and fifth-lowest passer rating in the regular season. 

    But Burrow is no stranger to facing seemingly unwinnable odds. He took nine sacks and still beat the Titans, which tied an NFL Playoffs record. Then against the Chiefs, Burrow overcame a terrible first-half to lead the Bengals back to victory.  

    Defensively, the Bengals are banged up and missing a good chunk of their front-seven. But they are one of the best adjusting units and limit opponents to just 8.4 points in the second half, which is even lower than Los Angeles at 11.3. 

    This defence will have to stay elite as Matthew Stafford has been one of the best second-half quarterbacks. He ended the Buccaneers' furious comeback attempt then engineered his own against the red-hot San Francisco defence.

    Stafford twice led the league in both fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. With the Rams, he's maintained this "clutch" ability with a passer rating of 117.1 in the second half. When pressured, his rating is still 95.2, the sixth-best in the NFL. If the Bengals hope to pull off this upset, they would have to outdo the Rams' d-line and keep Stafford uncomfortable.

    SBR's Pick: Los Angeles Rams (1.57) — So close yet so far! While our hearts will be with Burrow and the Bengals, our wallets are with Stafford and the Rams. Credit goes to the Bengals' clutch abilities, but the Rams proved that they can handle the pressure and excel. Stafford will also not choke like Patrick Mahomes and is significantly better than Ryan Tannehill, thus he should lead the Rams to a Super Bowl on their own turf. How's that for a fairy tale ending?

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