It sounds folly to lean on the “better quarterbacks” for our NFL Conference Finals picks when this is one of the most evenly matched games. You’ve got four MVP candidates all posting passer ratings of over 100 and with defenses that can make plays when it matters. From a betting perspective, this is a toughie, but it should be plenty of fun. Let’s check the NFL Conference Finals picks.
NFL Division Finals picks: Bet on defense to win
The NFL Division Finals pits some classic matchups following a Wild Card Weekend that saw some upsets and explosive football games. The defending champions Kansas City will be in action against the underdog Cleveland Browns while the offensively talented Green Bay Packers host the defensive juggernauts, Los Angeles. Expect for upsets this weekend and if you’re in doubt, remember to lean on the better defense. At least we are!
Check out our experts’ free NFL Divisional Playoffs betting picks in this article.
After an interesting Wild Card Weekend that saw four road teams and two underdogs win, the NFL Division Finals are set with four thrilling matchups. The top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers meet two six-seeds in the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Rams, respectively. The Buffalo Bills welcome the Baltimore Ravens while the New Orleans Saints host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Here are the odds via BetOnline:
|Away Team||Home Team|
Los Angeles Rams
|3.80||1.28||Green Bay Packers|
|4.75||11.82||Kansas City Chiefs|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|2.40||1.62||New Orleans Saints|
NFL Division Finals Schedule
- Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
- Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
NFL Division Finals picks: Lean on the better defences
As last weekend proved, there will always be a stunning upset during the NFL Playoffs. Cleveland upended the Steelers and the Rams silenced their division rivals, Seattle. Four of the six underdogs covered the spread including all three from Saturday.
Looking at this Division Finals, there is more potential for an upset. When eyeing these matchups, focus on which team has the better defence and go from there:
Los Angeles Rams (3.80) at Green Bay Packers (1.28)
An immovable object meets an unstoppable force. So as the cliche goes, the NFL’s best defence goes up against its best offence. The Rams have allowed the fewest points and the Packers have scored the most points. Call us conventional, but we’ll lean on defence here.
True, the Rams won’t be threatening anyone with a banged-up Jared Goff. But they will get just enough from him and running game to push the Packers on the brink. Aaron Donald continues to be a destructive force in the middle for the Rams while Jalen Ramsey will take away half the field.
SBR’s pick — Rams (3.80). Aaron Rodgers is too damn good and will show out despite what Los Angeles does, but he can’t do it by himself (hence why he only has one Super Bowl). The Rams will neuter the Packers’ offence and find ways to score en route to a decisive underdog victory.
Cleveland Browns (4.75) at Kansas City Chiefs (11.82)
With their backs against the wall, the Browns pulled an upset the franchise will never forget. Their reward for overcoming the odds? The defending Super Bowl champions. The Browns will likely get their missing players and coaches back and have enough firepower to keep things interesting.
But the Chiefs are not the Steelers. Kansas City was on cruise control for half the season and still led the league in total yards. The Browns’ defence isn’t too shabby but isn’t built to stop the onslaught that Mahomes will unleash at Arrowhead.
SBR’s pick — Chiefs (11.82). Who doesn’t want to root for the Browns? They’re finally a team worth talking about. Unfortunately, betting against Mahomes and the Chiefs is asking for trouble. Unless they get ravaged by COVID or Mahomes breaks an arm (knock on wood on both!), they should roll.
Baltimore Ravens (2.25) at Buffalo Bills (1.69)
The tastiest matchup this weekend features the two best quarterbacks of their draft class and possibly two future Hall of Famers. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson won the MVP last season and Buffalo’s Josh Allen has an outside shot to win it this season. But lately, Allen has eclipsed his draftmate.
Allen is the superior quarterback and the addition of Stefon Diggs helped him significantly upgrade his skills. But the Ravens have the right set-up to give Allen and the Bills fits. Baltimore proved their running game is bonkers and they can defend against the pass when it matters. This is a bad match-up for Buffalo.
SBR’s pick — Ravens (2.25). Like the Browns, it’s fun to root for the longtime underdogs. But Buffalo is vulnerable against the run and if they can’t establish their own rushing attack, Baltimore will run wild on Allen. Side with the Ravens to edge the Bills on this one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2.40) at New Orleans Saints (1.62)
At long last, Tom Brady and Drew Brees get to duke it out in the playoffs. Even at a combined age of 84, both Brady and Brees are still among the elite at quarterback. However, Brees is backed by a stacked team that would require less of him than the Bucs with Brady.
The Saints are a top-five team in most major defensive stats while the Bucs are vulnerable in the passing aspect. On the ground, Tampa has allowed the fewest rushing yards. But as their last meeting, a blowout win for New Orleans, identified, the Bucs will have a long night keeping the Saints from the endzone.
SBR’s pick — Saints (1.62). Whether this becomes a shootout or a one-sided romp, it should be New Orleans emerging on top. The Buccaneers have the scariest set of skill players, but the Saints’ defence has been on a tear. Brady will have a rough night ahead of him.
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