CFL Week 9 Predictions
CFL Today’s Games
Week 8 in the CFL was not my best as my two selections failed to cash for the first time all year. Ottawa let things slip away late in their game with Edmonton, and despite getting 40+ points from Saskatchewan at home (I expected their offense to continue that home/road split), BC only managed 8 points themselves and the game still stayed ‘under.’ A disappointing result to say the least, but those weeks (and days) are going to happen in this handicapping business. You’ve just got to take your medicine and move on.
As discussed in the opening, Week 9 is all about divisional rivalries with the four games we’ve got on the board. The action gets started with the undefeated Edmonton Eskimos in Winnipeg to take on a surging Blue Bombers team. Winnipeg has been waiting for another crack at an elite team since they coughed up a big lead to BC a few weeks back.
After that contest on Thursday night, we’ve got a Friday night double-header with Ottawa in Hamilton to take on a winless Tigercats team, and Calgary in BC for the night cap. Both of those games bring interesting narratives to them for much different reasons, and both will attract plenty of interest from bettors for different reasons.
Finally, we conlcude Week 9 with the back end of the home-and-home series between Montreal and Toronto, but with Argos QB Ricky Ray still dealing with a shoulder injury and his status unknown, oddsmakers are waiting until the last minute again to throw up a point spread and total. That means that it’s the first three games of the week where I’ll be hoping to grab a few winners, so let’s get right to the breakdowns.
Canadian Football League Picks Week 9
- Ottawa at Hamilton: *Over 56 points (-110) at Sports Interaction
The winless Hamilton Tiger-Cats are still impossible to trust to win SU or even cover a spread, although this spot does set up well for them to do so. I’m not even considering going that route as I said a few weeks ago I’m not going to back Hamilton no matter how good the spot looks until they win a game, and while this spot does look good for Hamilton, I’m going a different route here.
What you can trust the Tiger-Cats to do is give up points. Hamilton is 5-2 O/U on the year and they’ve allowed 30+ points in all seven of those contests. Giving up 30+ a game isn’t going to lead to too many wins, but it does give bettors a sense of trust in terms of the total. Ottawa is in need of a spark offensively themselves to try and rack up some wins, so facing the league’s worst defense should help the Redblacks get going on offense again.
Finally, what puts this ‘over’ play in high regard from my view is the fact that this is the week Hamilton turns their offense completely over to offensive-guru June Jones. Jones is known for his run-and-shoot offensive attacks at the NCAA level down in the States, and that style of play fits perfectly to the rules of the CFL game.
Hamilton’s offense has been far from good all year, but with Jones calling the shots against an Ottawa defense that has struggled of late themselves, this game has all the makings of a “first to 40 points wins” type affair with both teams quite possibly reaching that 40+ number.
- Calgary at BC: *BC +4.5 (-110) at Sports Interaction
Getting burnt by the BC Lions inability to score more than 8 points against a Saskatchewan team they had just put 30 up on the week before stung, but in hindsight I should have seen a down game for the Lions coming. For one, QB Jonathan Jennings was back and healthy, and his re-insertion into the starting lineup proved to be disastrous for the Lions overall. Things were made even worse by the flip-flopping of QB’s HC Wally Buono did trying to find something that worked, but in essence he was giving both guys no time to establish any sort of rhythm.
What I also should have seen was a potential look-ahead factor for the Lions to this home game vs. Calgary, as despite Edmonton’s undefeated record, many within the league still consider the Stampeders as the team to beat. You’d have to count BC in that mix of teams thinking that, and after just waxing Saskatchewan at home a week prior, and having this week’s game vs. Calgary on deck, last week’s game for the Lions was a pure sandwhich spot.
Yet, when a team does get caught looking ahead to a particular matchup, when that matchup does finally arrive you generally want to back the team that was looking ahead. That’s the BC Lions in this case as another week of practice should be enough to sort out their QB issues, and catching points at home is always a plus. With many not looking to back the Lions after last week’s horrible outing, the +4.5 points is actually quite a bit of value.
Finally, this is the first time these two teams have met since Calgary obliterated the Lions in last year’s Western Final. The 42-15 Calgary win with a berth in the Grey Cup on the line was quite embarrassing for the Lions and there is no question they’ve had this week’s game circled on their calendars for quite some time. I’m riding with that narrative this week as a SU win by BC isn’t out of the question either.
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